There have been a lot of comparisons drawn online lately between the recent seizure of 15 British Naval personnel near the Shatt al-Arab and the Gulf Of Tonkin incident in 1964. The difference between the two, of course, is that the former has actually occurred whereas the latter’s occurrence is, at best, debatable. I think the only thing that the comparison does draw is the ramifications this event will have on the Western public’s teetering perception of Iran, which, it should not be overlooked, is always the first step in beginning any propaganda campaign ultimately aimed at justifying actions that would otherwise be viewed as insupportable.
The war currently being waged in Iraq, and the falsehoods regarding weapons of mass destruction employed by both Downing Street and the White House with regards to the invasion of that country, have certainly weakened any case anti-Iranian Hawks within either government have attempted to formulate with regards to making the Iranian nuclear question of catalyzing public importance. Likewise, attempts to promote Iranian interference in Iraq, or the supplying of weapons by Iran to Shia groups has also failed to garner the sort of widespread condemnation that some hoped it would. The seizure of 15 Britons, on the other hand, is something that can certainly be capitalized on.
There is no question in my mind that were those British sailors in Iranian territory the proper course of action would have been to simply escort the British out of Iranian waters. Of course, both the British and the Iranians are offering two different GPS reports on the positions in question – which should come as no surprise.
Instead, 15 sailors were taken prisoner and flown to Tehran where they have been held since.
And so here we find ourselves. The Iranian government first considered trying them as spies, an obvious ploy to evoke a reaction from the British. They’ve also featured a captured Briton on Iranian television, another tactic obviously meant to stir the political pot, be it with regards to rumors of military action or the ongoing nuclear dilemma, which has obviously drawn condemnation from the Blair government. They are now allowing British officials to see them.
So what is behind Iran’s seemingly bizarre methodology?
Well, in my opinion, the three most important factors would be – one…
“My understanding of the situation is that this could be a reaction to the UN sanctions which were passed two days ago… the revolutionary guards had promised that some sort of reaction would be forthcoming from Iran.â€?
two…
“At 3am on 11 January US military forces raided the Iranian liaison office in the Kurdish capital Arbil and detained five Iranian officials who are still prisoners.�
and three…
“The U.S. Navy on Tuesday began its largest demonstration of force in the Persian Gulf since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, led by a pair of aircraft carriers and backed by warplanes flying simulated attack maneuvers off the coast of Iran.�
Were one to be objective they would certainly have to ask themselves what the perception would be were an Iranian Naval group to conduct exercises just off the coast of the Carolinas?
Seymour Hersh’s 2006 piece for the New Yorker entitled The Iran Plans, which reported that the United States was operating clandestinely in Iran, was one of the first indications that something might realistically be in the works with regards to the Bush administration militarily confronting Iran before then 2008 Presidential election. Since then numerous other articles and papers have been published on the subject.
And then there is the very recent article that appeared in the Russian weekly Argumenty Nedeli by Andrei Uglanov to consider. Obviously when it comes to news produced by the Russian media one has to be careful (actually that applies to the American media as well), so keep that in mind. But in his piece, Uglanov “cites Russian military experts close to the Russian General Staff� regarding a supposed preemptive strike against Iran by the United States called Operation Bite which is supposed to take place on the 6th of next month.
Now, do I personally believe that Operation Bite exists? Perhaps as a Psyop I do, but not as an actual military operation. And if I’m wrong about that, and Uglanov’s piece is correct, then surely it’s been scrubbed. But by leaking such material to the right people who have the ears of others, especially in a nation that does business with Iran, it’s bound to find its way into the press and then cycle back into the Western world – which is one way to gauge public reaction (the web is useful for more than just Face Book after all). I could, of course, be entirely off base as well, and it could be nothing more than Russian propaganda aimed at creating ballast with regards to the severity of the UN sanctions recently put into place against Iran.
Updated:
On a hunch I made a call…
I just spoke to a friend at the foreign desk and this is essentially what they told me -
The Joint Support Group (JSG) is operating in the Green Zone – they are essentially the same nefarious killers who ran the Ullster Force Research Unit in Northern Ireland – by a guy named Colonel Gordon Kerr. Kerr was found responsible for a boatload of killings on both sides during the “troubles” and yet still kept his gig in the British Army. A bad man is good to find.
These guys run something called Task Force Black, which is essentially what it sounds like, a paramilitary unit skilled at supporting local militias via funding and blackmail and the use of double agents – basically the art of playing both sides against each other and then blaming a 3rd party, namely Iran.
What we cant presently do is link the JSG to the Royal Marines currently being held in Iran. The female sailor who spoke on Al Jazeera today is not Irish, as I identifiend her accent to be of the Midlands (I could be wrong about that). Anyone involved in the Ullster Volunteers (other than on a lead operational level (Kerr is Scottish) would almost have to be Irish.
Updated:
Friday, March 30th – According to the BBC today, the names of five of the captives have been released, all of them being English.
