To begin, from today’s Toronto Star…

“The monks of Burma are poor, and they are unarmed, but they exert a life-and-death power over the population,” says Guy Horton, a British-based human rights consultant who has spent a decade collecting evidence of the Burmese military’s atrocities.

“This goes much deeper than ideology. The government has tried to buy off the monks by building temples and other things. But by attacking the monks they are putting their afterlives in grave danger,” says Horton, who is calling on Canada to join a campaign to bring the junta leaders to justice.

Monks normally begin the day by begging for food, and people who fill their bowls earn credits for the afterlife, known as karma. When monks reject food by overturning their bowls it puts the would-be donors in danger of a terrifying spiritual future.

“It’s a very high-pressure tactic,” explains Bruce Matthews, a Burma expert and professor emeritus of comparative religion at Acadia University in Nova Scotia. “It denies the military their credits. If they die without enough, their rebirth would be at a lower order of existence.”

The junta’s generals are heavily influenced by Buddhism, says Horton. “They’re terrified of the monkhood. They’re endlessly filming themselves going to the pagodas, and half of Burmese television is about the military bringing gifts there.”

I wrote recently that, no matter the outcome in Burma because of this current wave of protests, those that have employed nonviolent non-cooperation will achieve victory no matter the outcome simply because they refused to lower themselves to the level of those that they oppose. And I believe that to be very true. In fact, were it applied in more cases, such as in Gaza for example, we would very probably see a wave of change sweep the planet simply because only so many massacres can take place of innocents peacefully resisting before what we like to call ‘the civilized world’ would be forced to recognize the sheer magnitude of such a devotion and the utter brutality of those willing to confront it with violent means.

That said, and quite unfortunately given the Burmese military infrastructure, when one examines what is occurring in Burma from a realistic standpoint the truth is that for change to occur in an expedient fashion this event would have to have a significant impact on the officer corps within the Burmese military and lead to a dissention in the ranks that would ultimately threaten the Junta itself. Given the power wielded by Burma’s monks, and their refusal to accept alms, it is not out of the question that a movement within the military might choose to act.

Were that to occur, there are several outcomes to consider:

1) The current Junta would move immediately to purge its ranks, which, depending on the strength of those attempting to mutiny, might very well lead to a civil war. Such a state could also very well lead to ethnic guerrilla groups abandoning ceasefire agreements signed with the current government, adding a further level of chaos to the situation.

2) The Junta would simply be replaced by a more reasonable one bent on placating immediate foreign concerns, but one that would still not recognize the legitimacy of Aung San Suu Kyi.

3) That a faction within the military would depose the current regime and support the institution of Aung San Suu Kyi as the nation’s leader after securing Amnesty for themselves and positions within a reformed Burmese military establishment.

In the end, for this situation to come to a head, something will have to transpire within the ranks of the military itself. Were I a betting man, I would definitely say that that is a fact that isn’t lost on Burma’s Buddhist leadership, which may very well explain their heightened involvement in anti-government protests and their unwillingness to accept alms from members of the military.