More From Burma

The Asian Times is reporting today that there seems to be a conflict arising within the Burmese Junta regarding the ongoing situation there…

“SPDC second-in-command General Maung Aye reportedly opposed using force against the tens of thousands of monks who took to the streets, bringing him into conflict with Senior General Than Shwe, according to sources close to Maung Aye. Some soldiers in the old capital of Yangon and the city of Mandalay last week reportedly refused to obey their senior officers’ commands to attack or shoot at protesting monks, according to diplomatic sources in Yangon. Several aid workers in Mandalay reportedly witnessed soldiers there refusing to open fire when ordered by commanding officers.

General Than Shwe, the SPDC’s top general, personally gave the orders to the local commanders in Yangon to shoot into the crowd, a military source told Asia Times Online. “The two main commanders in Yangon have told their subordinates that the senior general directly ordered the attack last week,” he said. That shoot-to-kill policy has backfired on the junta, with international condemnation coming from the West as well as neighboring countries included in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member.

United Nations special envoy to Myanmar Ibrahim Gambari met with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi on Sunday and is reportedly now pressing to meet with both Than Shwe and Maung Aye. So far the SPDC leadership has declined to meet with the UN envoy, perhaps, some analysts speculate, precisely because the top two generals now view the next steps in dealing with the crisis differently.

There are unconfirmed reports that Than Shwe’s wife and one of his daughters, as well as his top business associate, Tay Za, flew out of the country on a Air Bagan flight to Singapore last week and have since traveled on to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. Their apparent flight came against the backdrop of growing questions about troop loyalty due to orders to shoot at monks and the possibility that they could have broken rank and joined with the street protestors.

“If the current crackdown results in more bloodshed, a mutiny within the 400,000-strong armed forces is a distinct possibility,” said Win Min, a Myanmar analyst based in Chiang Mai, Thailand. “Family members of the grassroots soldiers are suffering from increasing food and fuel prices like the people who are demonstrating, though top level officers are getting amazingly rich.”

Indeed, there have already been notable instances of a breakdown in the chain of command, according to diplomats. On September 20, for still unclear reasons security forces positioned at the barricades blocking access to Aung San Suu Kyi’s house allowed marching monks to pass and pray in front of the house, an episode that was widely reported worldwide. The following day, however, another group of monks bidding to pass her compound was turned away by a larger number of security personnel.

On Saturday, Maung Aye personally took control of the operations in Yangon and he reportedly posted soldiers with sub-machine guns at the entrance to University Avenue where Suu Kyi is under house arrest.

It is unclear if the apparent divergent views between the SPDC’s top two generals have resulted in a full-blown rift. But there are signs that Than Shwe fears a possible internal military power play, similar to the one in 1992 that resulted in his rise to power.”

I commented the other day on this factor being vital with regards to change occurring in Burma. Hopefully it will bear fruit. Having said that, hopefully widespread bloodshed will not occur if there is an internal confrontation. It will depend, obviously, on who the majority of the Junta’s officer corps chooses to back.

On top of this, the Daily Mail is reporting on what has befallen many Burmese monks at the hands of the Junta according to a military defector…

“But as attempts at talks continue, it was revealed that thousands of monks detained in Burma’s biggest city will be sent to prisons in the far north.

About 4,000 monks have been rounded up in the past week as the military government has tried to stamp out pro-democracy protests.

They are being held at a disused race course and a technical college.

Sources from a government-sponsored militia said they would soon be moved away from Rangoon.

The detained monks have been disrobed and shackled, according to sources quoted by BBC Radio’s Burmese service.

The reports follow claims from a former intelligence officer in Burma’s ruling junta that thousands of protesters have been killed and the bodies of hundreds of executed monks have been dumped in the jungle.

Public anger ignited on August 19 after the government increased fuel prices, then shifted into protests led by Buddhist monks against 45 years of military dictatorship.

Soldiers responded last week by opening fire on unarmed demonstrators. The demonstrations have now died down.

Burma’s junta leader Than Shwe yesterday stalled a UN envoy, putting off hearing international demands for an end to the crackdown on democracy advocates.

News of the jailings comes after a former intelligence officer for Burma’s ruling junta revealed the true extent of killings to clamp down on protests.

The most senior official to defect so far, Hla Win, said: “Many more people have been killed in recent days than you’ve heard about. The bodies can be counted in several thousand.”

Mr Win said he fled when he was ordered to take part in a massacre of holy men.

His defection will raise a faint hope among tens of thousands of Burmese who have fled to villages along the Thai border.

They will feel others in the army may follow him and turn on their ageing leaders, Senior General Than Shwe and his deputy, Vice Senior General Maung Aye.”