Blown Open
August 2, 2008, Matthew Good It started on Thursday and now it’s blown open…
» Pakistan denies ISI behind Indian embassy attack.
» U.S. Presses Pakistan on Control of Its Spy Agency.
» Pakistan vows to ‘weed out’ pro-Taliban agents.
» Why Pakistan is unlikely to crack down on Islamic militants.
» India says ties with Pakistan lowest in 4 years.
From today’s New York Times (linked above)…
“The Bush administration is increasing pressure on Pakistan’s fledgling civilian government to bring the country’s spy service under civilian control, according to American and Pakistani officials.
During meetings in Washington this week with Pakistan’s prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, senior Bush administration officials pressed their Pakistani counterparts to assert control over Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, the American officials said. The pressure comes as relations between India and Pakistan deteriorate following reports of ISI involvement in the recent bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan.
The American pressure reflects heightened concerns at the State Department, Pentagon and Central Intelligence Agency that operatives in the ISI, who have long been believed to have close ties to Pakistani militants, have become bolder and more open in their support for militant Islamist organizations.”
While statements can be made by the US administration regarding its concerns, the truth of the matter is that most knowledgeable annalists know that it’s just rhetoric. The Pakistani government is already in the midst of defending the ISI with regards to accusations that it was involved in the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul, which it may very well have been. They may even go so far as to promise that rogue elements within the ISI will be weeded out. In truth, the ISI may very well play ball with Pakistan’s new coalition government for the sake of placation, but will, by no means, abandon any of its power in my opinion.
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That is a very interesting angle on an already very dangerous situation…I seem to recall a similar empasse between India and Pakistan a few years back. Today, it is not even on the radar of the political headlines here in the UK.
This is at once fascinating and frightening.
“During meetings in Washington this week with Pakistan’s prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, senior Bush administration officials pressed their Pakistani counterparts to assert control over Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, the American officials said.”
And, the Americans aren’t playing in both courts either, working with ISI supporting some militant groups to wipe out others . . . . At the level of functional analysis of pressure and force, government is basically stationary and an elaborate PR department internationally.
P.M you are a star. Both you and Matt are exemplaries when it comes to discussing topics such as this. I feel out of my depth, but am learning so much from you guys.
Those are kind words, Jane. Thank you. But, my understanding of geo-politics doesn’t approach Matt’s.
It’s all a matter of timing. In the 1980s, Pakistan was rewarded for harbouring and supporting Islamic militants that the US spent billions training and arming in the name of defeating the Soviets. Now the ISI is being condemned for having links to these same groups and the Pakistan government for not being able to do anything about it.
In the end I don’t think Pakistans military or government is really going to care what the US government wants done if it erodes internal security and increases external threats from India and other powers in the area.
“In general, this administration at its upper reaches has been cool to the elected government from the start,” said Teresita Schaffer, a Pakistan expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “They like to look at Musharraf as a factor for stability.”
It’s also interesting how ambivalent the Bush adminstration is to real democracies in sensitive areas. Remember that Hamas was elected to represent the Palestinians then swiftly sidelined by the Israeli and US governments who knew they couldn’t control it.
Isnt this the crux to the problem in Afghanistan? Why hasnt the states been on top of this until now?
Yup, without control of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border there will be a constant infiltration of fighters and supplies for the insurgency. Western Pakistan is home to millions of ethnic Afghans who came there as refugees or are related to the Pashtun and other tribes of Afghanistan. This is a war that won’t end any time soon.
Bush has had his hands full trying to digest the nation of Iraq for the past five years. Any hope of bringing about a stable Afghanistan was lost the moment the US invaded Iraq.